Using numerical weather prediction data, we forecast electricity demand and renewable energy generation (solar PV and wind) for Japan’s nine power system areas up to eight days ahead, with daily updates.

Using numerical weather prediction (NWP) data for multiple locations together with actual area supply-demand data, we forecast electricity demand, solar PV generation, and wind power generation for Japan’s nine power system areas at 30-minute intervals. The forecasts are updated each morning using the latest information available by around 9:00 a.m. and are displayed as time-series charts together with actual values for comparison.

The forecasts presented on this page are independently produced by our laboratory using publicly available data and weather forecast data. They are not forecasts calculated or published by the respective general transmission and distribution system operators.

The forecasting models are developed based on the research findings presented in the following publications.

• Matsumoto, T., & Yamada, Y. (2021). Comprehensive and comparative analysis of GAM-based PV power forecasting models using multidimensional tensor product splines against machine learning techniques. Energies, 14(21), 7146. https://doi.org/10.3390/en14217146

• Matsumoto, T., & Yamada, Y. (2021, July). Construction of forecast model for power demand and PV power generation using tensor product spline function. In IOP Conference Series: Earth and Environmental Science (Vol. 812, No. 1, p. 012001). IOP Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1088/1755-1315/812/1/012001

• Matsumoto, T., & Yamada, Y. (2019). Forecasting methodology for photovoltaic power producers based on weather overview forecasts and weather-specific periodic trends. Transactions of the Operations Research Society of Japan, 62, 1–22. https://doi.org/10.15807/torsj.62.1

(Data sources: Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), Open-Meteo.com, Organization for Cross-regional Coordination of Transmission Operators, Japan (OCCTO), Hokkaido Electric Power Network, Tohoku Electric Power Network, TEPCO Power Grid, Chubu Electric Power Grid, Hokuriku Electric Power Transmission & Distribution, Kansai Transmission and Distribution, Chugoku Electric Power Transmission & Distribution, Shikoku Electric Power Transmission & Distribution, and Kyushu Electric Power Transmission and Distribution)