This simulator models the optimal operation schedule of a battery storage system using JEPX price forecasts. 

By selecting the area, target date, charge/discharge efficiency (round-trip efficiency), and guard-band strategy, the simulator calculates an optimal charge/discharge schedule based on JEPX price forecasts. When price forecasts are fed directly into a deterministic optimization model, forecast errors may cause the optimizer to select trading opportunities that are not actually profitable—an issue known as the “optimizer’s curse.” This simulator allows users to apply “guard bands,” which conservatively adjust the sell-side price downward and the buy-side price upward based on the historical distribution of forecast errors. The purpose is to reduce excessive charge/discharge actions driven by forecast errors.

For details of the methodology, please refer to the paper below.

Matsumoto, T., & Sasanuma, K. Mitigating the Optimizer’s Curse in Forecast-Driven Battery Arbitrage via Conservative Guard Bands. Available at SSRN 6598009. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.6598009

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